As I have been saying, 2010 will be an interesting year in the markets, and this week only supports my contention. Many bearish voices are suggesting a correction is coming, but we have been hearing this since March of last year. Nonetheless, something bearish is afoot, as the world wrestles with the continuing ramifications related to recovering from the worst economic collapse since the 1930s. Here is where we are this week.The risk aversion following the 2-day slide in the markets has supported safe haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen, sending commodities lower. Amid this backdrop and in the absence of any key economic report, the major averages may fight to hold key support levels. - World Daily Markets Bulletin The factors contributing to this bearish influence are global in scope, and they offer insight into just how interrelated all the global markets have become, and, as we will see at the end of this article, how one less-discussed factor just might be a prime mover in the market of today.China, the driver of today's economic recovery, is so "hot" it is tapping the brakes on its rapidly growing GDP, which hit 10.7% in Q4. China announced it would begin reducing liquidity in its markets. The announcement of this "normalization" process immediately and negatively impacted the global equity and commodity markets, but positively affected the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. One might argue that this relationship is typical, and so it is, but now factor into that the possibility that China has a larger problem with its developing housing bubble. Housing prices have jumped some 70% in the last two years. Put that together with an over-stimulated economy, a government that is putting on the monetary brakes, and you now have one huge market (China as a whole) acting as a drag on the global economy.Fine, China is China, and we know that its debt-free and rapidly growing economy is influencing the global markets, but what about our markets right here in the U.S.? We have mixed economic data indicating our recovery is happening, but it is not quite solid in its footing. Q4 corporate earnings for the most part have been strong, but some would argue that is true only because of major cost-cutting and tighter inventories.
Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts
Spouses and unemployment duration
When unemployed, some people search more intensely for a new job than others. That will of course depend on their personal circumstances. The urgency of getting some income is obviously more pressing when there is little alternative income, and one such alternative is the spouse.
Stefania Marcassa studies French couples where one spouse works and the other is unemployed. It turns out unemployed men search longer for a job if their spouse earns less, while it is reversed for unemployed women. That turns out to be consistent, in a standard labor search model, with a breadwinner stigma for men. French men do not seems to be able to bear the thought of having a successful wife while being unemployed, while women see no hurry to work if their husband is doing well. Clearly, the sexist ones here are the men.
Stefania Marcassa studies French couples where one spouse works and the other is unemployed. It turns out unemployed men search longer for a job if their spouse earns less, while it is reversed for unemployed women. That turns out to be consistent, in a standard labor search model, with a breadwinner stigma for men. French men do not seems to be able to bear the thought of having a successful wife while being unemployed, while women see no hurry to work if their husband is doing well. Clearly, the sexist ones here are the men.
The fight against obesity: more city parks, please
Obesity rates are increasing pretty much everywhere, but nowhere is the obesity problem as massive as in the United States. And nowhere else is television viewing such a cultural focus. With ever increasing viewing times, now about 4 hours a day, one has to wonder what drives Americans to spend so much time in front of the TV with a beer and greasy finger food. Maybe it is the lack of alternatives. Indeed, walk around almost any US city and you will find very few people outside, in a large part because there is nothing to do outside: few parks, no pedestrian areas, no river fronts, etc.
Maoyong Fan and Yanhong Jin show that this does indeed matter for obesity, in particular childhood obesity, which is the most difficult to reverse. One needs to differentiate by various characteristics, though. Parks work particularly well for girls in unsafe neighborhoods, but not as well for white adolescents with high incomes. Now switch that TV off and go outside.
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